Sánchez weighs down Spain’s global image: nearly 30 organizations shred their economic forecasts

Bank of Spain, International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Commission, OECD, Funcas, Chamber of Commerce, Caixabank, BBVA, CEOE, Institute of Economic Studies (IEE), AIReF, JP Morgan, College of Economists, Banco Santander, Repsol, Mapfre, Cemex, Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI), Axesor, Loyola University, Meytis, Ceprede, Icade, Equipo Economico, the PVC consultancy firm – survey of executives and economists-, Oxford Economics, Rey Juan Carlos University and Intermoney.

It is the almost 30 national and international organizations that have revised their economic forecasts for Spain downwards for 2021 and 2022, while the government of Pedro Sanchez on its own, it defends its estimates – 6.5% GDP growth this year, and 7% next year – and boasts of being one of the most dynamic economies in Europe. Far from modifying its accounts or admitting the economic situation of the country, the Executive continues in its thirteen, sending a bad signal to the markets.

The Bank of Spain was the latest to join the long list of national and international organizations, companies, banks and universities that estimate the increase in GDP this year between 4.5% and 5.5%. The institution now forecasts growth this year of 4.5%, in line with the European Commission, which represents a loss of wealth of 11.00 billion compared to the forecast. The presiding body Pablo Hernández de Cos also warned in its report, released this Friday, that the Spanish economy is the one that Slower is recovering from the eurozone.

Spanish GDP is still 6.6 points lower than GDP of the fourth quarter of 2019, against 0.3 point of the European average. The Bank of Spain already predicts that the pre-pandemic level will not be reached until the first quarter of 2023, the most late in Europe despite the fact that the 2020 sinking was the biggest. The United States has already returned to the pre-covid level in the third quarter of this year.


The Minister of Finance, Maria Jesús MonteroHe pointed out a few weeks ago that it made no sense to change the forecast with a month to end the year. Meanwhile, Montero, the vice president of economic affairs, Nadia calvin, and the President of the Government himself, Pedro Sanchez, insist that “Spain is growing strongly” and that “the recovery is solid and robust”.

None of this indicates the Bank of Spain, which forecasts GDP growth in this fourth quarter of 1.6%, lower than in the previous quarter. He also warns that inflation will exceed the 2021 average in 2022, above 3.5%, which will have implications for consumption and, possibly, the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank. (BCE).

In addition, the agency is focusing on the pandemic, which could again spread and cause restrictions, and continue to hit the international tourism arriving in Spain, one of the bases of the national GDP.

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